Discover how credibility theory helps actuaries use historical data to estimate risks and set insurance premiums; learn how the Bayesian and Buhlmann methods relate.

Bayesian Networks, also known as Belief Networks or Bayes Nets, are a powerful probabilistic graphical model used for reasoning under uncertainty. They have been successfully applied to a wide range ...

It’s estimated that human adults make about 35,000 decisions a day — the percentage of good decisions depends on the adult. These choices can be as banal as deciding to roll or crumple toilet paper or ...

Learn to apply Bayes' theorem in financial forecasting for insightful, updated predictions. Enhance decision-making with ...

Probability theory has long provided a rigorous framework for quantifying uncertainty, yet its extension to infinite sets introduces profound conceptual challenges and opportunities. Contemporary ...

A man went on an airplane ride. Unfortunately, he fell out. Fortunately, he had a parachute on. Unfortunately, the parachute did not open. Fortunately, there was a haystack below him, directly in the ...