We develop an alternative approach to the general equilibrium analysis of a stochastic production economy when firms' choices of investment influence the probability distributions of their output.

Probability theory has long provided a rigorous framework for quantifying uncertainty, yet its extension to infinite sets introduces profound conceptual challenges and opportunities. Contemporary ...

The problem of finding confidence intervals for the success parameter of a binomial experiment has a long history, and a myriad of procedures have been developed. Most exploit the duality between ...

In 2010 I helped a startup IPO by creating a custom Monte Carlo planning tool in C# that estimated the likelihood that their new small business product would ship on schedule. The output of this tool ...

Source: Thunder Bay, Canada. Used with permission of Dan Hunt, MD. Coincidences attract our attention because they seem weird, odd, or unlikely. Their improbability stimulates wonder—“what are the ...