This is the evening run of the Global Ensemble Forecast System. It is a weather model that generates 21 separate forecasts (ensemble members) to address uncertainties in the input data and the limitations of the model itself. In simple terms, it gives a range of all track possibilities. What is important about tonight's run is that most of the models are converging on an eastern Gulf track, which includes Florida and even bypassing Florida to the south is not impossible. They are all buying into

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